This TSX Dividend Stock Is Down 20% and Worth Holding for Decades

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Nutrien is approaching an important earnings update, with second-quarter results expected on August 5, 2026.

Wall Street expects the company to report higher quarterly earnings and revenue compared with the same period last year. Investors will be watching potash pricing, fertilizer volumes, retail performance, and management’s outlook for the remainder of 2026.

The stock has also received a recent analyst upgrade, with BNP Paribas moving Nutrien to Outperform from Neutral as the firm turned more positive on fertilizer pricing, particularly potash and phosphate.

Analyst sentiment is firmly positive.

Fourteen of the 19 analysts covering Nutrien rate it Buy or Strong Buy. The average target price suggests approximately 14% upside, while the median target points to slightly more recovery potential.

The two Strong Sell ratings show that views are not entirely one-sided, particularly given fertilizer-price volatility and the company’s uneven earnings history.

The 2026 outlook is encouraging, with analysts forecasting stronger sales and earnings for the current year.

Growth is expected to soften in 2027, reflecting the cyclical nature of fertilizer markets. Potash and nitrogen prices can change quickly based on crop economics, global supply, energy costs, and geopolitical developments.

For long-term investors, the more important question is whether Nutrien can grow earnings across a full agricultural cycle rather than in any single year.

Nutrien’s profitability compares favourably with much of the agricultural-input industry.

Its gross, operating, and net margins are all above the supplied industry averages. Debt also appears manageable, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.6 and interest coverage of 5.4.

The dividend payout ratio of approximately 45% provides a reasonable cushion, although earnings can fluctuate significantly as fertilizer prices move through the cycle.

Nutrien is not the highest-yielding stock on the TSX, but its dividend appears reasonably supported by earnings.

The payout offers investors income while they wait for fertilizer prices, earnings, and the share price to recover. Dividend growth has been modest recently, so the main attraction is a combination of income and long-term capital appreciation rather than rapid payout increases.

Nutrien’s technical picture is balanced.

The stock is above its 50-day average but remains slightly below its 120-day average. An RSI near 57 suggests positive momentum without indicating that the shares are significantly overbought.

The upcoming earnings report could determine whether the recent recovery continues or the stock moves back toward its longer-term average.