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Welcome to the May edition of the Wealth Awesome newsletter. Thank you to the 17,000+ 🇨🇦 subscribers who join us today!
Market Update
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Summary
Stalled, Not Stopped: Canada’s Economy Finds a Year-End Pulse
Canada’s economy likely stalled in Q4 2025, with GDP expected to come in flat after a strong Q3, as temporary disruptions and trade uncertainty weighed on activity.
Weakness in October and November—driven by strikes, semiconductor shortages, and tariff pressures—dragged down the quarter, but December showed encouraging signs of rebound.
Manufacturing and wholesale sales jumped as auto production recovered, and education services continued to normalize after strike-related disruptions.
While housing and retail remained soft, business investment appears to have improved, and labour markets are stabilizing.
With much of the slowdown tied to one-off factors, the Bank of Canada is unlikely to cut rates further.
⏱️ TLDR: Q4 looked weak on the surface, but most of the slowdown was temporary — December’s rebound suggests Canada’s economy is stabilizing without needing another rate cut.
Key Takeaways 💡
1. 🔄 Soft quarter, stronger finish: Most Q4 weakness was front-loaded, with December data pointing to renewed momentum heading into 2026.
2. 🏦 No rush to cut: With rates already near stimulative levels and labour markets improving, the BoC is expected to stay on hold.
Canadian stocks over the last 30 days (ends January - February 2026)
The TSX delivered a mixed month with strong leadership from materials and energy, offsetting notable weakness in tech. AEM (+13.80%), CNI (+11.47%), ENB (+8.71%), and WPM (+7.68%) powered gains, alongside solid moves in FNV (+6.87%) and BMO (+3.35%). Energy names like SU and IMO also contributed positively. However, Shopify (-15.20%) was a major drag, joined by declines in BN (-4.62%), MFC (-3.14%), and TRP-related weakness. Overall, the market showed a clear rotation into commodities and defensives while growth names struggled to keep pace.
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Thats it for this month!
The Wealth Awesome Team